Academica vs Leixoes: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Leixoes the pick at 42% for Academica vs Leixoes. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Leixoes travel to Academica on 24 October 2026 at Estádio Cidade de Coimbra, Coimbra. Leixoes are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 8 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Academica - Leixoes. Kick-off is 10:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Academica: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Across those five they scored ten and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of 0.
Leixoes: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored eight and conceded four, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Academica | Leixoes |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 10th |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLL | LLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 10 | 8 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.0 | 48.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 35% | 42% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Academica 45.0 versus Leixoes 48.6, a gap of 3.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.07, over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 45%.
- First goal: Leans Leixoes' way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Leixoes at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Academica's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Academica or Leixoes?
Leixoes, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 35% Academica, 22% the draw and 42% Leixoes.
When and where is Academica vs Leixoes being played?
24 October 2026 at Estádio Cidade de Coimbra, Coimbra, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
Have Academica and Leixoes met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Academica and Leixoes?
Academica have taken 9 points from their last five (WWWLL), Leixoes 7 from theirs (LLWDW). Most recently Academica took a 3-2 win at home to Amarante and Leixoes a 0-1 defeat away at Vianense.
How many goals are expected in Academica vs Leixoes?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.07 — 1.67 for Academica and 1.40 for Leixoes. It rates over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 45%, so its call is no.