Farense vs Penafiel: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Farense the pick at 50% for Farense vs Penafiel. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Farense host Penafiel on 24 October 2026 at Estádio de São Luís, Faro. Farense are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 8 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Farense - Penafiel. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Farense: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 17 conceded in 20 matches, 0.75 and 0.85 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 53.4 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +7.
Penafiel: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 18 conceded in 15 matches, 1.4 and 1.2 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 66.8 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Farense | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +7 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWD | LLDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 1 | 7 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 20 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 0.75 / 0.85 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.05 | 1.53 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 53.4 | 66.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 22% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Farense 53.4 versus Penafiel 66.8, a gap of 13.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Farense's way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to Farense at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Farense's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Farense's way, especially at Estádio de São Luís.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Farense or Penafiel?
Farense, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Farense, 28% the draw and 22% Penafiel.
When and where is Farense vs Penafiel being played?
24 October 2026 at Estádio de São Luís, Faro, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Farense and Penafiel?
Penafiel 1-1 Farense on 07 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Farense and Penafiel?
Farense have taken 13 points from their last five (WWWWD), Penafiel 7 from theirs (LLDWW). Most recently Farense took a 3-0 win at home to AD Marco 09 and Penafiel a 0-1 defeat at home to Leça.
How many goals are expected in Farense vs Penafiel?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 0.60 for Farense and 1.60 for Penafiel. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.