União de Leiria vs AVS — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes União de Leiria the pick at 62% for União de Leiria vs AVS. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
União de Leiria face AVS on 31 October 2026 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria. União de Leiria are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 62%. This matchday 9 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as União de Leiria - AVS. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
União de Leiria: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 25 conceded in 18 matches, 1.78 and 1.39 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.9 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
AVS: they come in on a four-match winning sequence, following one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 30 conceded in 19 matches, 0.95 and 1.58 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | União de Leiria | AVS |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLWD | WWWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 6 | 7 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.78 / 1.39 | 0.95 / 1.58 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.61 | 0.95 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.9 | 58.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 62% | 14% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: União de Leiria 51.9 versus AVS 58.8, a gap of 6.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.80, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans União de Leiria's way at 64%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards União de Leiria at 62%, a gap of 39 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts União de Leiria's way, especially at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: União de Leiria or AVS?
União de Leiria, with an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The full split is 62% União de Leiria, 23% the draw and 14% AVS.
When and where is União de Leiria vs AVS being played?
31 October 2026 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Leiria, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Have União de Leiria and AVS met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of União de Leiria and AVS?
União de Leiria have taken 8 points from their last five (DWLWD), AVS 13 from theirs (WWWWD). Most recently União de Leiria took a 1-1 draw away at FC Porto B and AVS a 2-1 win at home to Tondela.
How many goals are expected in União de Leiria vs AVS?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.80 — 1.20 for União de Leiria and 0.60 for AVS. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is no.