Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Lusitânia Lourosa the pick at 47% for Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Lusitânia Lourosa face Farense on 1 November 2026 at Estadio Do Lusitania, Lorosa. Lusitânia Lourosa are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This matchday 9 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Lusitânia Lourosa - Farense. Kick-off is 15:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lusitânia Lourosa: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 24 conceded in 17 matches, 1.18 and 1.41 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.4 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +7.
Farense: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 17 conceded in 20 matches, 0.75 and 0.85 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.3 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Lusitânia Lourosa | Farense |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 5th |
| Goal difference | +7 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWDWW | LWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 6 | 11 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 3 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.18 / 1.41 | 0.75 / 0.85 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 63.4 | 49.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 26% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Lusitânia Lourosa 63.4 versus Farense 49.3, a gap of 14.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Lusitânia Lourosa's way at 54%.
The call
The model tilts to Lusitânia Lourosa at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Lusitânia Lourosa's way, especially at Estadio Do Lusitania.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lusitânia Lourosa or Farense?
Lusitânia Lourosa, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Lusitânia Lourosa, 27% the draw and 26% Farense.
When and where is Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense being played?
1 November 2026 at Estadio Do Lusitania, Lorosa, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Have Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lusitânia Lourosa and Farense?
Lusitânia Lourosa have taken 11 points from their last five (DWDWW), Farense 12 from theirs (LWWWW). Most recently Lusitânia Lourosa took a 2-2 draw away at Felgueiras 1932 and Farense a 1-4 defeat at home to Penafiel.
How many goals are expected in Lusitânia Lourosa vs Farense?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.80 for Lusitânia Lourosa and 0.80 for Farense. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.