Penafiel vs Feirense — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Penafiel the pick at 52% for Penafiel vs Feirense. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Feirense travel to Penafiel on 2 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel. Penafiel are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 9 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Penafiel - Feirense. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Penafiel: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 18 conceded in 15 matches, 1.4 and 1.2 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.5 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +10.
Feirense: they come in on the back of a draw, following four defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 18 conceded in 16 matches, 0.94 and 1.12 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 26.3 out of 100, and they sit 18th on a goal difference of -8.
Side by side
| Statistic | Penafiel | Feirense |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 18th |
| Goal difference | +10 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLDW | DLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 1 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 7 | 2 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 0.94 / 1.12 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.53 | 1.44 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 67.5 | 26.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 20% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Penafiel 67.5 versus Feirense 26.3, a gap of 41.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 15 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Penafiel's way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Penafiel at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Penafiel's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Penafiel's way, especially at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Penafiel or Feirense?
Penafiel, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Penafiel, 28% the draw and 20% Feirense.
When and where is Penafiel vs Feirense being played?
2 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Penafiel and Feirense?
Feirense 1-0 Penafiel on 15 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Penafiel and Feirense?
Penafiel have taken 7 points from their last five (WLLDW), Feirense 1 from theirs (DLLLL). Most recently Penafiel took a 4-1 win away at Farense and Feirense a 0-0 draw at home to Benfica B.
How many goals are expected in Penafiel vs Feirense?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 2.20 for Penafiel and 0.60 for Feirense. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.