Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Tondela the pick at 50% for Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Tondela host Felgueiras 1932 on 1 November 2026 at Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela. Tondela are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 9 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Tondela - Felgueiras 1932. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Tondela: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 26 conceded in 17 matches, 1.0 and 1.53 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.2 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +1.
Felgueiras 1932: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 15 conceded in 17 matches, 1.06 and 0.88 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -2.
Side by side
| Statistic | Tondela | Felgueiras 1932 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 16th |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWW | DWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 11 / 3 | 6 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.53 | 1.06 / 0.88 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.06 | 1.53 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 55.2 | 37.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 22% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Tondela 55.2 versus Felgueiras 1932 37.8, a gap of 17.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans Tondela's way at 52%.
The call
The model tilts to Tondela at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Tondela's way, especially at Estádio João Cardoso.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Tondela or Felgueiras 1932?
Tondela, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Tondela, 28% the draw and 22% Felgueiras 1932.
When and where is Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932 being played?
1 November 2026 at Estádio João Cardoso, Tondela, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
Have Tondela and Felgueiras 1932 met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Tondela and Felgueiras 1932?
Tondela have taken 12 points from their last five (LWWWW), Felgueiras 1932 7 from theirs (DWLWL). Most recently Tondela took a 1-2 defeat away at AVS and Felgueiras 1932 a 2-2 draw at home to Lusitânia Lourosa.
How many goals are expected in Tondela vs Felgueiras 1932?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.80 for Tondela and 1.60 for Felgueiras 1932. It rates over 2.5 goals at 42%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.