Academica vs Amarante — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Academica the pick at 63% for Academica vs Amarante. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Academica host Amarante on 7 November 2026 at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra, Coimbra. Academica are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 63%. This matchday 10 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Academica - Amarante. Kick-off is 15:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Academica: they come in on the back of a defeat, following four wins before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Across those five they scored 14 and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +3.
Amarante: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded seven, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.3 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Academica | Amarante |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 14th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWWW | WLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 14 / 5 | 7 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.8 | 37.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 63% | 17% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Academica 45.8 versus Amarante 37.3, a gap of 8.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.25, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Academica's way at 62%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Academica at 63%, a gap of 44 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Academica's way, especially at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Academica or Amarante?
Academica, with an implied win probability of roughly 63%. The full split is 63% Academica, 20% the draw and 17% Amarante.
When and where is Academica vs Amarante being played?
7 November 2026 at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra, Coimbra, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Have Academica and Amarante met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Academica and Amarante?
Academica have taken 12 points from their last five (LWWWW), Amarante 6 from theirs (WLLLW). Most recently Academica took a 1-2 defeat away at Vizela and Amarante a 2-1 win at home to FC Porto B.
How many goals are expected in Academica vs Amarante?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.25 — 2.00 for Academica and 1.25 for Amarante. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.