Chaves vs Penafiel: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Chaves the pick at 51% for Chaves vs Penafiel. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Penafiel travel to Chaves on 7 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves. Chaves are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 10 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Chaves - Penafiel. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Chaves: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 24 conceded in 15 matches, 1.27 and 1.6 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.1 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -9.
Penafiel: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 18 conceded in 15 matches, 1.4 and 1.2 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 67.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +11.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Chaves | Penafiel |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 2nd |
| Goal difference | -9 | +11 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWDL | WWLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 10 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.27 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.07 | 1.53 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.1 | 67.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 26% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Chaves 46.1 versus Penafiel 67.8, a gap of 21.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Chaves' way at 55%.
The call
The model tilts to Chaves at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Chaves's way, especially at Estadio Municipal de Chaves.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chaves or Penafiel?
Chaves, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% Chaves, 24% the draw and 26% Penafiel.
When and where is Chaves vs Penafiel being played?
7 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Chaves, Chaves, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Chaves and Penafiel?
Chaves 0-1 Penafiel on 06 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Chaves and Penafiel?
Chaves have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWDL), Penafiel 7 from theirs (WWLLD). Most recently Chaves took a 1-3 defeat away at Benfica B and Penafiel a 1-0 win at home to Feirense.
How many goals are expected in Chaves vs Penafiel?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 1.60 for Chaves and 2.20 for Penafiel. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is no.