Torreense vs União de Leiria: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Torreense the pick at 44% for Torreense vs União de Leiria. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Torreense host União de Leiria on 9 November 2026 at Estadio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras. Torreense are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 10 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Torreense - União de Leiria. Kick-off is 20:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Torreense: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 17 conceded in 21 matches, 1.29 and 0.81 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.2 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -2.
União de Leiria: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 25 conceded in 18 matches, 1.78 and 1.39 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.2 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Torreense | União de Leiria |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 9th |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLLL | WDWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 3 / 7 | 7 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 21 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.29 / 0.81 | 1.78 / 1.39 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.86 | 1.61 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.2 | 52.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 25% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Torreense 51.2 versus União de Leiria 52.2, a gap of 1.0, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Torreense's way at 53%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Torreense at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. União de Leiria's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Torreense's way, especially at Estadio Manuel Marques.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Torreense or União de Leiria?
Torreense, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Torreense, 31% the draw and 25% União de Leiria.
When and where is Torreense vs União de Leiria being played?
9 November 2026 at Estadio Manuel Marques, Torres Vedras, kick-off 20:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Torreense and União de Leiria?
Torreense 3-1 União de Leiria on 08 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Torreense and União de Leiria?
Torreense have taken 4 points from their last five (DWLLL), União de Leiria 10 from theirs (WDWLW). Most recently Torreense took a 0-0 draw away at Portimonense and União de Leiria a 2-1 win at home to AVS.
How many goals are expected in Torreense vs União de Leiria?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Torreense and 1.20 for União de Leiria. It rates over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.