Leixoes vs Chaves: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Leixoes the pick at 52% for Leixoes vs Chaves. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Leixoes face Chaves on 15 November 2026. Leixoes are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 52%. This matchday 11 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Leixoes - Chaves. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Leixoes: they come in on the back of a draw, following four defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (28 scored and 25 conceded in 18 matches, 1.56 and 1.39 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.7 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -4.
Chaves: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 24 conceded in 15 matches, 1.27 and 1.6 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.8 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -10.
Side by side
| Statistic | Leixoes | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 17th |
| Goal difference | -4 | -10 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLLL | LLWWD |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 12 | 8 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.56 / 1.39 | 1.27 / 1.6 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.72 | 1.07 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 30.7 | 35.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 52% | 22% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Leixoes 30.7 versus Chaves 35.8, a gap of 5.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Leixoes' way at 58%.
The call
The model tilts to Leixoes at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Leixoes or Chaves?
Leixoes, with an implied win probability of roughly 52%. The full split is 52% Leixoes, 26% the draw and 22% Chaves.
When and where is Leixoes vs Chaves being played?
15 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Leixoes and Chaves?
Chaves 1-2 Leixoes on 09 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Leixoes and Chaves?
Leixoes have taken 1 points from their last five (DLLLL), Chaves 7 from theirs (LLWWD). Most recently Leixoes took a 3-3 draw away at Felgueiras 1932 and Chaves a 2-3 defeat at home to Penafiel.
How many goals are expected in Leixoes vs Chaves?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.40 for Leixoes and 1.40 for Chaves. It rates over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.