Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Penafiel the pick at 50% for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Lusitânia Lourosa travel to Penafiel on 15 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel. Penafiel are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 11 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Penafiel - Lusitânia Lourosa. Kick-off is 15:30 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Penafiel: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (14 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 2.33 and 1.0 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 68.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +12.
Lusitânia Lourosa: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win and three draws before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 1.5 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Penafiel | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Goal difference | +12 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWLL | LDDWD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 6 | 6 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 2.33 / 1.0 | 1.5 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.5 | 1.83 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 68.0 | 46.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 23% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Penafiel 68.0 versus Lusitânia Lourosa 46.5, a gap of 21.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.20, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans Penafiel's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Penafiel at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Penafiel's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Penafiel's way, especially at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Penafiel or Lusitânia Lourosa?
Penafiel, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Penafiel, 27% the draw and 23% Lusitânia Lourosa.
When and where is Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa being played?
15 November 2026 at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril, Penafiel, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa?
Penafiel 2-0 Lusitânia Lourosa on 16 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Penafiel and Lusitânia Lourosa?
Penafiel have taken 9 points from their last five (WWWLL), Lusitânia Lourosa 6 from theirs (LDDWD). Most recently Penafiel took a 3-2 win away at Chaves and Lusitânia Lourosa a 0-1 defeat away at Feirense.
How many goals are expected in Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.20 — 2.80 for Penafiel and 1.40 for Lusitânia Lourosa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.