Tondela vs Farense: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Tondela the pick at 56% for Tondela vs Farense. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Farense travel to Tondela on 15 November 2026. Tondela are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 11 fixture in Segunda Liga is listed as Tondela - Farense. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Tondela: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 26 conceded in 17 matches, 1.0 and 1.53 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 58.8 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +2.
Farense: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 17 conceded in 20 matches, 0.75 and 0.85 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 49.1 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Tondela | Farense |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 8th |
| Goal difference | +2 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLWW | LDLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 5 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 20 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.53 | 0.75 / 0.85 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.06 | 1.05 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 58.8 | 49.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 19% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Tondela 58.8 versus Farense 49.1, a gap of 9.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Tondela's way at 59%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Tondela at 56%, a gap of 32 percentage points to the next outcome. Tondela's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Tondela or Farense?
Tondela, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% Tondela, 24% the draw and 19% Farense.
When and where is Tondela vs Farense being played?
15 November 2026, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have Tondela and Farense met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Tondela and Farense?
Tondela have taken 10 points from their last five (DWLWW), Farense 7 from theirs (LDLWW). Most recently Tondela took a 1-1 draw away at Sporting CP B and Farense a 2-3 defeat at home to Benfica B.
How many goals are expected in Tondela vs Farense?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.80 for Tondela and 1.20 for Farense. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.