FC UFA vs Nizhny Novgorod: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes FC UFA the pick at 45% for FC UFA vs Nizhny Novgorod. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Nizhny Novgorod travel to FC UFA on 24 October 2026 at Neftyanik Stadium, Ufa. FC UFA are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 15 fixture in First League is listed as FC UFA - Nizhny Novgorod. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC UFA: they come in on the back of a win, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Across those five they scored five and conceded five, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 42.7 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +4.
Nizhny Novgorod: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored 20 and conceded two, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 82.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +28.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC UFA | Nizhny Novgorod |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 1st |
| Goal difference | +4 | +28 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDLD | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 5 | 20 / 2 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 3 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 42.7 | 82.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: FC UFA 42.7 versus Nizhny Novgorod 82.0, a gap of 39.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans FC UFA's way at 49%.
The call
The model edges towards FC UFA at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC UFA's way, especially at Neftyanik Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC UFA or Nizhny Novgorod?
FC UFA, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% FC UFA, 25% the draw and 30% Nizhny Novgorod.
When and where is FC UFA vs Nizhny Novgorod being played?
24 October 2026 at Neftyanik Stadium, Ufa, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have FC UFA and Nizhny Novgorod met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FC UFA and Nizhny Novgorod?
FC UFA have taken 5 points from their last five (WLDLD), Nizhny Novgorod 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently FC UFA took a 2-0 win at home to Arsenal Tula and Nizhny Novgorod a 2-1 win away at Ural.
How many goals are expected in FC UFA vs Nizhny Novgorod?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.20 for FC UFA and 1.80 for Nizhny Novgorod. It rates over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.