Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Chelyabinsk the pick at 44% for Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Chelyabinsk host Shinnik Yaroslavl on 31 October 2026 at Central Stadium (Chelyabinsk), Chelyabinsk. Chelyabinsk are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 16 fixture in First League is listed as Chelyabinsk - Shinnik Yaroslavl. Kick-off is 10:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Chelyabinsk: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 8 conceded in six matches, 1.33 and 1.33 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 46.6 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -7.
Shinnik Yaroslavl: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 5 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 0.83 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.9 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Chelyabinsk | Shinnik Yaroslavl |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 7th |
| Goal difference | -7 | +5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLLWD | WDLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 9 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.33 / 1.33 | 1.67 / 0.83 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.17 | 2.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 46.6 | 52.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 28% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Chelyabinsk 46.6 versus Shinnik Yaroslavl 52.9, a gap of 6.3, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 36% and both teams to score at 44%.
- First goal: Leans Chelyabinsk's way at 51%.
The call
The model edges towards Chelyabinsk at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Shinnik Yaroslavl's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Chelyabinsk's way, especially at Central Stadium (Chelyabinsk).
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Chelyabinsk or Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Chelyabinsk, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Chelyabinsk, 28% the draw and 28% Shinnik Yaroslavl.
When and where is Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl being played?
31 October 2026 at Central Stadium (Chelyabinsk), Chelyabinsk, kick-off 10:00 UTC.
Have Chelyabinsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Chelyabinsk and Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Chelyabinsk have taken 4 points from their last five (LLLWD), Shinnik Yaroslavl 8 from theirs (WDLWD). Most recently Chelyabinsk took a 1-3 defeat at home to Ural and Shinnik Yaroslavl a 2-1 win at home to Spartak Kostroma.
How many goals are expected in Chelyabinsk vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.00 for Chelyabinsk and 1.60 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. It rates over 2.5 goals at 36%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 44%, so its call is no.