Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Arsenal Tula and Chelyabinsk on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
Chelyabinsk travel to Arsenal Tula on 7 November 2026 at Stadion Arsenal, Tula. Arsenal Tula are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 38%. This matchday 17 fixture in First League is listed as Arsenal Tula - Chelyabinsk. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Arsenal Tula: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 18 conceded in seven matches, 1.14 and 2.57 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.5 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -14.
Chelyabinsk: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 8 conceded in seven matches, 1.43 and 1.14 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.1 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -5.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Arsenal Tula | Chelyabinsk |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -14 | -5 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWLWL | WLLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 14 | 8 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.14 / 2.57 | 1.43 / 1.14 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.0 | 1.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.5 | 47.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 38% | 34% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Arsenal Tula 41.5 versus Chelyabinsk 47.1, a gap of 5.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Chelyabinsk's way at 46%.
The call
The model does not commit. Arsenal Tula is the nominal pick at 38%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Arsenal Tula's way, especially at Stadion Arsenal.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Arsenal Tula or Chelyabinsk?
Arsenal Tula, with an implied win probability of roughly 38%. The full split is 38% Arsenal Tula, 28% the draw and 34% Chelyabinsk.
When and where is Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk being played?
7 November 2026 at Stadion Arsenal, Tula, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Arsenal Tula and Chelyabinsk met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Arsenal Tula and Chelyabinsk?
Arsenal Tula have taken 6 points from their last five (LWLWL), Chelyabinsk 6 from theirs (WLLLW). Most recently Arsenal Tula took a 0-4 defeat away at Nizhny Novgorod and Chelyabinsk a 2-0 win at home to Shinnik Yaroslavl.
How many goals are expected in Arsenal Tula vs Chelyabinsk?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.20 for Arsenal Tula and 1.40 for Chelyabinsk. It rates over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.