FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes FC Sochi the pick at 45% for FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Shinnik Yaroslavl travel to FC Sochi on 13 November 2026 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Sochi. FC Sochi are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 19 fixture in First League is listed as FC Sochi - Shinnik Yaroslavl. Kick-off is 23:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC Sochi: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following three wins before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 12 conceded in eight matches, 1.38 and 1.5 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +6.
Shinnik Yaroslavl: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (12 scored and 8 conceded in eight matches, 1.5 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.3 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +4.
Side by side
| Statistic | FC Sochi | Shinnik Yaroslavl |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +6 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLWWW | WLWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 5 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 8 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.38 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.12 | 1.88 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.5 | 59.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Sochi 56.5 versus Shinnik Yaroslavl 59.3, a gap of 2.8, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 47%.
- First goal: Leans FC Sochi's way at 50%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to FC Sochi at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Shinnik Yaroslavl's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Sochi's way, especially at Fisht Olympic Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Sochi or Shinnik Yaroslavl?
FC Sochi, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% FC Sochi, 26% the draw and 29% Shinnik Yaroslavl.
When and where is FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl being played?
13 November 2026 at Fisht Olympic Stadium, Sochi, kick-off 23:00 UTC.
Have FC Sochi and Shinnik Yaroslavl met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of FC Sochi and Shinnik Yaroslavl?
FC Sochi have taken 9 points from their last five (LLWWW), Shinnik Yaroslavl 7 from theirs (WLWDL). Most recently FC Sochi took a 0-3 defeat away at Enisey and Shinnik Yaroslavl a 2-1 win at home to FC UFA.
How many goals are expected in FC Sochi vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.00 for FC Sochi and 1.20 for Shinnik Yaroslavl. It rates over 2.5 goals at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 47%, so its call is no.