Lyon W vs Marseille W — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Lyon W the pick at 69% for Lyon W vs Marseille W. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Lyon W host Marseille W on 24 October 2026 at Groupama Stadium, Lyon. Lyon W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 69%. This matchday 6 fixture in Feminine Division 1 is listed as Lyon W - Marseille W. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Lyon W: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following two wins and one draw before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored 25 and conceded one, with four clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 82.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +28.
Marseille W: they come in on three successive draws, following two wins before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored eight and conceded six, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 55.5 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Lyon W | Marseille W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 4th |
| Goal difference | +28 | +2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWDWW | DDDWW |
| Points from last 5 | 13 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 25 / 1 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 4 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 82.0 | 55.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 69% | 12% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Lyon W 82.0 versus Marseille W 55.5, a gap of 26.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Lyon W's way at 67%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Lyon W at 69%, a gap of 51 percentage points to the next outcome. Lyon W's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Lyon W's way, especially at Groupama Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Lyon W or Marseille W?
Lyon W, with an implied win probability of roughly 69%. The full split is 69% Lyon W, 18% the draw and 12% Marseille W.
When and where is Lyon W vs Marseille W being played?
24 October 2026 at Groupama Stadium, Lyon, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Lyon W and Marseille W met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Lyon W and Marseille W?
Lyon W have taken 13 points from their last five (WWDWW), Marseille W 9 from theirs (DDDWW). Most recently Lyon W took a 4-0 win away at Paris Saint Germain W and Marseille W a 2-2 draw at home to FC Fleury 91 W.
How many goals are expected in Lyon W vs Marseille W?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.60 for Lyon W and 2.00 for Marseille W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.