FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg match summary and prediction — 3. Liga
There is barely anything between FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
The fixture at a glance
FC Ingolstadt 04 host MSV Duisburg on 24 October 2026 at Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt. FC Ingolstadt 04 are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 36%. This matchday 11 fixture in 3. Liga is listed as FC Ingolstadt 04 - MSV Duisburg. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
FC Ingolstadt 04: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 25 conceded in 17 matches, 1.71 and 1.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.5 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -2.
MSV Duisburg: they come in on the back of a draw, following four wins before that. That is four wins, one draw and no defeats from the last five, worth 13 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (29 scored and 26 conceded in 17 matches, 1.71 and 1.53 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 72.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +15.
Comparison data
| Statistic | FC Ingolstadt 04 | MSV Duisburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -2 | +15 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLLL | DWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 13 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 10 | 14 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.71 / 1.47 | 1.71 / 1.53 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.35 | 1.76 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.5 | 72.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 34% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: FC Ingolstadt 04 44.5 versus MSV Duisburg 72.1, a gap of 27.6, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.60, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans MSV Duisburg's way at 47%.
The call
The model does not commit. FC Ingolstadt 04 is the nominal pick at 36%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts FC Ingolstadt 04's way, especially at Audi Sportpark.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: FC Ingolstadt 04 or MSV Duisburg?
FC Ingolstadt 04, with an implied win probability of roughly 36%. The full split is 36% FC Ingolstadt 04, 30% the draw and 34% MSV Duisburg.
When and where is FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg being played?
24 October 2026 at Audi Sportpark, Ingolstadt, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg?
FC Ingolstadt 04 0-0 MSV Duisburg on 04 March 2026.
What is the recent form of FC Ingolstadt 04 and MSV Duisburg?
FC Ingolstadt 04 have taken 6 points from their last five (WWLLL), MSV Duisburg 13 from theirs (DWWWW). Most recently FC Ingolstadt 04 took a 1-0 win at home to Rot-Weiß Essen and MSV Duisburg a 1-1 draw at home to FC Viktoria Köln.
How many goals are expected in FC Ingolstadt 04 vs MSV Duisburg?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.60 — 1.80 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1.80 for MSV Duisburg. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.