Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor match summary and prediction — Süper Lig
Our model makes a draw the pick at 45% for Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Alanyaspor host Kocaelispor on 23 October 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanya. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 45%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 9 fixture in Süper Lig is listed as Alanyaspor - Kocaelispor. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Alanyaspor: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (25 scored and 23 conceded in 17 matches, 1.47 and 1.35 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.4 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -1.
Kocaelispor: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (9 scored and 20 conceded in 16 matches, 0.56 and 1.25 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.2 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Alanyaspor | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 8th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWDW | LLWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 6 | 5 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.47 / 1.35 | 0.56 / 1.25 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.12 | 0.88 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.4 | 45.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 15% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Alanyaspor 51.4 versus Kocaelispor 45.2, a gap of 6.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 12% and both teams to score at 39%.
- First goal: Leans Alanyaspor's way at 64%.
The call
The model edges towards a draw at 45%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Alanyaspor's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Alanyaspor or Kocaelispor?
Neither side. Our model splits it 40% Alanyaspor, 45% the draw and 15% Kocaelispor, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor being played?
23 October 2026 at Alanya Oba Stadium, Alanya, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Alanyaspor 5-0 Kocaelispor on 18 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Alanyaspor and Kocaelispor?
Alanyaspor have taken 8 points from their last five (LDWDW), Kocaelispor 6 from theirs (LLWLW). Most recently Alanyaspor took a 0-3 defeat away at Fenerbahçe and Kocaelispor a 1-2 defeat at home to Göztepe.
How many goals are expected in Alanyaspor vs Kocaelispor?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for Alanyaspor and 1.00 for Kocaelispor. It rates over 2.5 goals at 12%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 39%, so its call is no.