Başakşehir vs Samsunspor match summary and prediction — Süper Lig
Our model makes Başakşehir the pick at 50% for Başakşehir vs Samsunspor. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Samsunspor travel to Başakşehir on 1 November 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul. Başakşehir are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 50%. This matchday 10 fixture in Süper Lig is listed as Başakşehir - Samsunspor. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Başakşehir: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 14 conceded in 16 matches, 2.0 and 0.88 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.8 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -2.
Samsunspor: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (31 scored and 35 conceded in 23 matches, 1.35 and 1.52 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 21.8 out of 100, and they sit 17th on a goal difference of -13.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Başakşehir | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 17th |
| Goal difference | -2 | -13 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDWL | LLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 3 / 15 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 23 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.0 / 0.88 | 1.35 / 1.52 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.12 | 1.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 47.8 | 21.8 |
| Players unavailable | 4 | 12 |
| Model win probability | 50% | 26% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Başakşehir 47.8 versus Samsunspor 21.8, a gap of 26.1, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: Samsunspor carry the heavier absentee list, twelve players to four.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Başakşehir's way at 59%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Başakşehir at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Başakşehir's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Başakşehir's way, especially at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Başakşehir or Samsunspor?
Başakşehir, with an implied win probability of roughly 50%. The full split is 50% Başakşehir, 24% the draw and 26% Samsunspor.
When and where is Başakşehir vs Samsunspor being played?
1 November 2026 at Basaksehir Fatih Terim Stadium, Istanbul, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Başakşehir 3-0 Samsunspor on 09 May 2026.
What is the recent form of Başakşehir and Samsunspor?
Başakşehir have taken 7 points from their last five (LWDWL), Samsunspor 0 from theirs (LLLLL). Most recently Başakşehir took a 0-2 defeat away at Beşiktaş and Samsunspor a 1-2 defeat at home to Amed.
How many goals are expected in Başakşehir vs Samsunspor?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Başakşehir and 1.20 for Samsunspor. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for Başakşehir and twelve for Samsunspor at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.