Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. match summary and prediction — 1. Lig
Our model makes a draw the pick at 52% for Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Manisa F.K. travel to Fatih Karagümrük on 13 September 2026 at Yusuf Ziya Onis, Istanbul. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 52%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 7 fixture in 1. Lig is listed as Fatih Karagümrük - Manisa F.K. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Fatih Karagümrük: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two draws before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 22 conceded in 16 matches, 1.0 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 51.4 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -1.
Manisa F.K.: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 16 conceded in eleven matches, 1.36 and 1.45 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.9 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Fatih Karagümrük | Manisa F.K. |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th | 10th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDWW | LLDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 8 | 9 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 11 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.38 | 1.36 / 1.45 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.25 | 1.36 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 51.4 | 41.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 26% | 22% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Fatih Karagümrük 51.4 versus Manisa F.K. 41.9, a gap of 9.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.50, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 69%.
- First goal: Leans Fatih Karagümrük's way at 52%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Fatih Karagümrük or Manisa F.K.?
Neither side. Our model splits it 26% Fatih Karagümrük, 52% the draw and 22% Manisa F.K., with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K. being played?
13 September 2026 at Yusuf Ziya Onis, Istanbul, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have Fatih Karagümrük and Manisa F.K. met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Fatih Karagümrük and Manisa F.K.?
Fatih Karagümrük have taken 8 points from their last five (LDDWW), Manisa F.K. 5 from theirs (LLDDW). Most recently Fatih Karagümrük took a 3-4 defeat away at Batman Petrolspor and Manisa F.K. a 1-2 defeat at home to Bursaspor.
How many goals are expected in Fatih Karagümrük vs Manisa F.K.?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.50 — 0.50 for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.00 for Manisa F.K. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 69%, so its call is yes.