Vanspor FK vs Keçiörengücü: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 52% for Vanspor FK vs Keçiörengücü. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Vanspor FK face Keçiörengücü on 12 September 2026 at Ataturk City Stadium, Van. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 52%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 7 fixture in 1. Lig is listed as Vanspor FK - Keçiörengücü. Kick-off is 14:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Vanspor FK: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 12 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 2.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 40.2 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -6.
Keçiörengücü: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (38 scored and 20 conceded in 19 matches, 2.0 and 1.05 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 63.4 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of +7.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Vanspor FK | Keçiörengücü |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 6th |
| Goal difference | -6 | +7 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDWL | WWDDW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 11 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 11 | 12 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 6 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.67 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.05 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.0 | 1.74 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 40.2 | 63.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 27% | 22% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Vanspor FK 40.2 versus Keçiörengücü 63.4, a gap of 23.2, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 8.00, over 2.5 goals at 99% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans Vanspor FK's way at 50%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Keçiörengücü's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Vanspor FK or Keçiörengücü?
Neither side. Our model splits it 27% Vanspor FK, 52% the draw and 22% Keçiörengücü, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Vanspor FK vs Keçiörengücü being played?
12 September 2026 at Ataturk City Stadium, Van, kick-off 14:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Vanspor FK and Keçiörengücü?
Keçiörengücü 3-0 Vanspor FK on 04 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Vanspor FK and Keçiörengücü?
Vanspor FK have taken 5 points from their last five (DLDWL), Keçiörengücü 11 from theirs (WWDDW). Most recently Vanspor FK took a 2-2 draw away at Muğlaspor and Keçiörengücü a 3-0 win at home to Sarıyer.
How many goals are expected in Vanspor FK vs Keçiörengücü?
The model's combined scoring line is 8.00 — 6.00 for Vanspor FK and 2.00 for Keçiörengücü. It rates over 2.5 goals at 99%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.