Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Sarıyer the pick at 45% for Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Sarıyer host Fatih Karagümrük on 24 October 2026 at Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, Istanbul. Sarıyer are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 12 fixture in 1. Lig is listed as Sarıyer - Fatih Karagümrük. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Sarıyer: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, three draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (23 scored and 17 conceded in 16 matches, 1.44 and 1.06 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -1.
Fatih Karagümrük: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (16 scored and 22 conceded in 16 matches, 1.0 and 1.38 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.4 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Sarıyer | Fatih Karagümrük |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 13th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLDWD | LLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 8 | 5 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.44 / 1.06 | 1.0 / 1.38 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.56 | 1.25 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.8 | 41.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 27% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Sarıyer 44.8 versus Fatih Karagümrük 41.4, a gap of 3.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 53%.
- First goal: Leans Sarıyer's way at 49%.
The call
The model tilts to Sarıyer at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Sarıyer's way, especially at Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Sarıyer or Fatih Karagümrük?
Sarıyer, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% Sarıyer, 28% the draw and 27% Fatih Karagümrük.
When and where is Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük being played?
24 October 2026 at Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, Istanbul, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Sarıyer and Fatih Karagümrük met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Sarıyer and Fatih Karagümrük?
Sarıyer have taken 6 points from their last five (DLDWD), Fatih Karagümrük 4 from theirs (LLDLW). Most recently Sarıyer took a 1-1 draw away at Sivasspor and Fatih Karagümrük a 1-2 defeat at home to Keçiörengücü.
How many goals are expected in Sarıyer vs Fatih Karagümrük?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 1.00 for Sarıyer and 1.40 for Fatih Karagümrük. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 53%, so its call is yes.