Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor match summary and prediction — 1. Lig
There is barely anything between Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Ümraniyespor host Sivasspor on 24 October 2026 at Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi, Istanbul. Sivasspor are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 39%. This matchday 12 fixture in 1. Lig is listed as Ümraniyespor - Sivasspor. Kick-off is 10:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Ümraniyespor: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (27 scored and 21 conceded in 18 matches, 1.5 and 1.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.1 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -1.
Sivasspor: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, four draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (20 scored and 21 conceded in 16 matches, 1.25 and 1.31 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 48.6 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Ümraniyespor | Sivasspor |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th | 12th |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLDWL | DDWDD |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 4 | 8 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 18 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.5 / 1.17 | 1.25 / 1.31 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.39 | 1.38 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 48.1 | 48.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 36% | 39% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 50%.
- First goal: Leans Ümraniyespor's way at 47%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model does not commit. Sivasspor is the nominal pick at 39%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Ümraniyespor or Sivasspor?
Sivasspor, with an implied win probability of roughly 39%. The full split is 36% Ümraniyespor, 25% the draw and 39% Sivasspor.
When and where is Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor being played?
24 October 2026 at Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi, Istanbul, kick-off 10:30 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor 1-0 Ümraniyespor on 15 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Ümraniyespor and Sivasspor?
Ümraniyespor have taken 7 points from their last five (WLDWL), Sivasspor 7 from theirs (DDWDD). Most recently Ümraniyespor took a 2-0 win away at Vanspor FK and Sivasspor a 1-1 draw at home to Sarıyer.
How many goals are expected in Ümraniyespor vs Sivasspor?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.60 for Ümraniyespor and 1.00 for Sivasspor. It rates over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 50%, so its call is yes.