Port Vale vs Manchester City U21 match summary and prediction — EFL Trophy
Our model makes Port Vale the pick at 42% for Port Vale vs Manchester City U21. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Port Vale face Manchester City U21 on 27 October 2026 at Vale Park, Stoke on Trent. Port Vale are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This group north 4 fixture in EFL Trophy is listed as Port Vale - Manchester City U21. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Port Vale: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins before that. That is three wins, one draw and no defeats from the last four, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those four they scored five and conceded one, with three clean sheets. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Manchester City U21: they come in on three defeats in a row, following two wins before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored 14 and conceded twelve, with one clean sheet. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Side by side
| Statistic | Port Vale | Manchester City U21 |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWWW | LLLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 1 | 14 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 33% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams to score at 59%.
- First goal: Leans Port Vale's way at 51%.
The call
The model edges towards Port Vale at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Port Vale's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Port Vale's way, especially at Vale Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Port Vale or Manchester City U21?
Port Vale, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Port Vale, 24% the draw and 33% Manchester City U21.
When and where is Port Vale vs Manchester City U21 being played?
27 October 2026 at Vale Park, Stoke on Trent, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Port Vale and Manchester City U21 met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Port Vale and Manchester City U21?
Port Vale have taken 10 points from their last four (DWWW), Manchester City U21 6 from theirs (LLLWW). Most recently Port Vale took a 1-1 draw away at Gillingham and Manchester City U21 a 2-4 defeat away at Tottenham Hotspur U21.
How many goals are expected in Port Vale vs Manchester City U21?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 0.40 for Port Vale and 3.00 for Manchester City U21. It rates over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 59%, so its call is yes.