Burton Albion vs Notts County match summary and prediction — EFL Trophy
Our model makes Burton Albion the pick at 42% for Burton Albion vs Notts County. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Burton Albion host Notts County on 10 November 2026 at Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent. Burton Albion are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This group north 6 fixture in EFL Trophy is listed as Burton Albion - Notts County. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Burton Albion: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 13 conceded in seven matches, 1.57 and 1.86 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Notts County: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 5 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 0.83 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Burton Albion | Notts County |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWDDL | WDWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 6 | 10 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.57 / 1.86 | 1.0 / 0.83 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.14 | 1.17 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 35% |
Key match insights
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.20, over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Burton Albion's way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Burton Albion at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Burton Albion's way, especially at Pirelli Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Burton Albion or Notts County?
Burton Albion, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Burton Albion, 23% the draw and 35% Notts County.
When and where is Burton Albion vs Notts County being played?
10 November 2026 at Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Burton Albion and Notts County met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Burton Albion and Notts County?
Burton Albion have taken 5 points from their last five (LWDDL), Notts County 10 from theirs (WDWLW). Most recently Burton Albion took a 0-2 defeat away at Wycombe and Notts County a 2-0 win away at Mansfield Town.
How many goals are expected in Burton Albion vs Notts County?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.20 — 1.20 for Burton Albion and 1.00 for Notts County. It rates over 2.5 goals at 60%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.