Rochdale vs Doncaster match summary and prediction — EFL Trophy
Our model makes Doncaster the pick at 46% for Rochdale vs Doncaster. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Doncaster travel to Rochdale on 3 November 2026 at Spotland Stadium, Rochdale. Doncaster are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This group north 8 fixture in EFL Trophy is listed as Rochdale - Doncaster. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Rochdale: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (6 scored and 13 conceded in six matches, 1.0 and 2.17 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Doncaster: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (8 scored and 12 conceded in seven matches, 1.14 and 1.71 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Rochdale | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLDL | LWLLW |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 6 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 16 | 5 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.0 / 2.17 | 1.14 / 1.71 |
| Points per game (2026) | 0.83 | 0.71 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 29% | 46% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 66%.
- First goal: Leans Doncaster's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Doncaster at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Doncaster's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Rochdale or Doncaster?
Doncaster, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 29% Rochdale, 25% the draw and 46% Doncaster.
When and where is Rochdale vs Doncaster being played?
3 November 2026 at Spotland Stadium, Rochdale, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Rochdale and Doncaster met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Rochdale and Doncaster?
Rochdale have taken 2 points from their last five (LDLDL), Doncaster 6 from theirs (LWLLW). Most recently Rochdale took a 0-5 defeat at home to Accrington ST and Doncaster a 1-3 defeat away at Luton.
How many goals are expected in Rochdale vs Doncaster?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 0.80 for Rochdale and 1.20 for Doncaster. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 66%, so its call is yes.