Oxford United vs Cheltenham — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Oxford United the pick at 65% for Oxford United vs Cheltenham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Oxford United face Cheltenham on 10 November 2026 at Kassam Stadium, Oxford. Oxford United are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 65%. This group south 1 fixture in EFL Trophy is listed as Oxford United - Cheltenham. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Oxford United: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (12 scored and 6 conceded in eight matches, 1.5 and 0.75 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Cheltenham: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 11 conceded in six matches, 1.83 and 1.83 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Oxford United | Cheltenham |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWDW | LWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 2 | 9 / 11 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 8 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.5 / 0.75 | 1.83 / 1.83 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.75 | 1.67 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 65% | 16% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.40, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Oxford United's way at 66%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Oxford United at 65%, a gap of 47 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Oxford United's way, especially at Kassam Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Oxford United or Cheltenham?
Oxford United, with an implied win probability of roughly 65%. The full split is 65% Oxford United, 19% the draw and 16% Cheltenham.
When and where is Oxford United vs Cheltenham being played?
10 November 2026 at Kassam Stadium, Oxford, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Oxford United and Cheltenham met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Oxford United and Cheltenham?
Oxford United have taken 11 points from their last five (WDWDW), Cheltenham 7 from theirs (LWWLD). Most recently Oxford United took a 2-0 win at home to Reading and Cheltenham a 1-3 defeat away at Tranmere.
How many goals are expected in Oxford United vs Cheltenham?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.40 — 1.40 for Oxford United and 2.00 for Cheltenham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.