Plymouth vs Swindon Town: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Plymouth the pick at 59% for Plymouth vs Swindon Town. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Plymouth face Swindon Town on 10 November 2026 at Home Park, Plymouth. Plymouth are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 59%. This group south 5 fixture in EFL Trophy is listed as Plymouth - Swindon Town. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Plymouth: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 6 conceded in six matches, 1.83 and 1.0 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Swindon Town: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (11 scored and 12 conceded in seven matches, 1.57 and 1.71 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Plymouth | Swindon Town |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLLW | WDWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 8 | 6 / 4 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 6 | 7 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 1.83 / 1.0 | 1.57 / 1.71 |
| Points per game (2026) | 2.17 | 1.43 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 59% | 21% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.00, over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 61%.
- First goal: Leans Plymouth's way at 58%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Plymouth at 59%, a gap of 37 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Plymouth's way, especially at Home Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Plymouth or Swindon Town?
Plymouth, with an implied win probability of roughly 59%. The full split is 59% Plymouth, 20% the draw and 21% Swindon Town.
When and where is Plymouth vs Swindon Town being played?
10 November 2026 at Home Park, Plymouth, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Plymouth and Swindon Town met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Plymouth and Swindon Town?
Plymouth have taken 7 points from their last five (DWLLW), Swindon Town 8 from theirs (WDWDL). Most recently Plymouth took a 0-0 draw at home to Reading and Swindon Town a 2-1 win at home to Rotherham.
How many goals are expected in Plymouth vs Swindon Town?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.00 — 1.80 for Plymouth and 1.20 for Swindon Town. It rates over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 61%, so its call is yes.