Northampton vs Gillingham — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Northampton the pick at 47% for Northampton vs Gillingham. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Northampton host Gillingham on 10 November 2026 at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton. Northampton are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 47%. This group south 7 fixture in EFL Trophy is listed as Northampton - Gillingham. Kick-off is 19:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Northampton: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (5 scored and 6 conceded in seven matches, 0.71 and 0.86 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Gillingham: they come in on the back of a win, following one win, one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2026-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 10 conceded in six matches, 1.67 and 1.67 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That gives them a form rating of 25.0 out of 100.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Northampton | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWLW | WLDLW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 3 | 9 / 12 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2026 season) | 7 | 6 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2026) | 0.71 / 0.86 | 1.67 / 1.67 |
| Points per game (2026) | 1.14 | 1.67 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 25.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 47% | 29% |
What stands out
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans Northampton's way at 52%.
The call
The model tilts to Northampton at 47%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Northampton's way, especially at Sixfields Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Northampton or Gillingham?
Northampton, with an implied win probability of roughly 47%. The full split is 47% Northampton, 23% the draw and 29% Gillingham.
When and where is Northampton vs Gillingham being played?
10 November 2026 at Sixfields Stadium, Northampton, kick-off 19:00 UTC.
Have Northampton and Gillingham met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Northampton and Gillingham?
Northampton have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWLW), Gillingham 7 from theirs (WLDLW). Most recently Northampton took a 0-1 defeat at home to Oldham and Gillingham a 2-1 win away at Shrewsbury.
How many goals are expected in Northampton vs Gillingham?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 0.80 for Northampton and 2.00 for Gillingham. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.