Hamburger SV W vs Mainz 05 W — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Hamburger SV W the pick at 51% for Hamburger SV W vs Mainz 05 W. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Hamburger SV W face Mainz 05 W on 13 November 2026 at Volksparkstadion, Hamburg. Hamburger SV W are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 10 fixture in Frauen Bundesliga is listed as Hamburger SV W - Mainz 05 W. Kick-off is 17:30 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Hamburger SV W: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is no wins, one draw and four defeats from the last five, worth 1 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored nine and conceded 15, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.6 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -3.
Mainz 05 W: they come in on five defeats in a row. That is no wins, no draws and five defeats from the last five, worth 0 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored two and conceded 18, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 18.8 out of 100, and they sit 14th on a goal difference of -25.
Side by side
| Statistic | Hamburger SV W | Mainz 05 W |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 14th |
| Goal difference | -3 | -25 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLL | LLLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 1 | 0 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 15 | 2 / 18 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 37.6 | 18.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 27% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Hamburger SV W 37.6 versus Mainz 05 W 18.8, a gap of 18.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 64%.
- First goal: Leans Hamburger SV W's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to Hamburger SV W at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Hamburger SV W's way, especially at Volksparkstadion.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Hamburger SV W or Mainz 05 W?
Hamburger SV W, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% Hamburger SV W, 22% the draw and 27% Mainz 05 W.
When and where is Hamburger SV W vs Mainz 05 W being played?
13 November 2026 at Volksparkstadion, Hamburg, kick-off 17:30 UTC.
Have Hamburger SV W and Mainz 05 W met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Hamburger SV W and Mainz 05 W?
Hamburger SV W have taken 1 points from their last five (LLDLL), Mainz 05 W 0 from theirs (LLLLL). Most recently Hamburger SV W took a 0-2 defeat away at Bayer Leverkusen W and Mainz 05 W a 1-3 defeat at home to Stuttgart W.
How many goals are expected in Hamburger SV W vs Mainz 05 W?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 1.20 for Hamburger SV W and 0.40 for Mainz 05 W. It rates over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 64%, so its call is yes.