PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis match summary and prediction — Super League 1
Our model makes a draw the pick at 50% for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
PAOK host Aris Thessalonikis on 13 September 2026 at Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 50%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 4 fixture in Super League 1 is listed as PAOK - Aris Thessalonikis. Kick-off is 18:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
PAOK: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (47 scored and 29 conceded in 26 matches, 1.81 and 1.12 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Aris Thessalonikis: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and one defeat from the last four, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (18 scored and 10 conceded in 13 matches, 1.38 and 0.77 per game) points to a side built on keeping the game tight rather than winning it early. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.2 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | PAOK | Aris Thessalonikis |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 7th |
| Goal difference | +3 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDWLW | DLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 7 | 6 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 26 | 13 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.81 / 1.12 | 1.38 / 0.77 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.58 | 1.85 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.8 | 44.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 30% | 19% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: PAOK 45.8 versus Aris Thessalonikis 44.2, a gap of 1.5, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.60, over 2.5 goals at 26% and both teams to score at 46%.
- First goal: Leans PAOK's way at 52%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to a draw at 50%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: PAOK or Aris Thessalonikis?
Neither side. Our model splits it 30% PAOK, 50% the draw and 19% Aris Thessalonikis, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
13 September 2026 at Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK on 08 February 2026.
What is the recent form of PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK have taken 7 points from their last five (LDWLW), Aris Thessalonikis 7 from theirs (DLWW). Most recently PAOK took a 1-3 defeat away at Panathinaikos and Aris Thessalonikis a 1-1 draw away at Asteras Tripolis.
How many goals are expected in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.60 — 0.60 for PAOK and 1.00 for Aris Thessalonikis. It rates over 2.5 goals at 26%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 46%, so its call is no.