PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes PAOK the pick at 56% for PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Asteras Tripolis travel to PAOK on 1 November 2026 at Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki. PAOK are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 56%. This matchday 9 fixture in Super League 1 is listed as PAOK - Asteras Tripolis. Kick-off is 17:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
PAOK: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (47 scored and 29 conceded in 26 matches, 1.81 and 1.12 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.2 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +5.
Asteras Tripolis: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 24 conceded in 19 matches, 1.11 and 1.26 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 43.0 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -8.
Comparison data
| Statistic | PAOK | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 11th |
| Goal difference | +5 | -8 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWLW | LDLWD |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 8 | 5 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 26 | 19 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.81 / 1.12 | 1.11 / 1.26 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.58 | 1.21 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 56.2 | 43.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 56% | 17% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: PAOK 56.2 versus Asteras Tripolis 43.0, a gap of 13.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 56%.
- First goal: Leans PAOK's way at 62%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model leans firmly towards PAOK at 56%, a gap of 30 percentage points to the next outcome. PAOK's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts PAOK's way, especially at Toumba Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: PAOK or Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK, with an implied win probability of roughly 56%. The full split is 56% PAOK, 26% the draw and 17% Asteras Tripolis.
When and where is PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
1 November 2026 at Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki, kick-off 17:00 UTC.
Have PAOK and Asteras Tripolis met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of PAOK and Asteras Tripolis?
PAOK have taken 9 points from their last five (WLWLW), Asteras Tripolis 5 from theirs (LDLWD). Most recently PAOK took a 3-1 win at home to AEK Athens FC and Asteras Tripolis a 0-2 defeat at home to Kifisia.
How many goals are expected in PAOK vs Asteras Tripolis?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.20 for PAOK and 0.80 for Asteras Tripolis. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 56%, so its call is yes.