Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Asteras Tripolis the pick at 46% for Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Asteras Tripolis host Kalamata on 8 November 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripoli. Asteras Tripolis are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 10 fixture in Super League 1 is listed as Asteras Tripolis - Kalamata. Kick-off is 15:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Asteras Tripolis: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored four and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.4 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -9.
Kalamata: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored ten and conceded ten, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 47.3 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of -4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Asteras Tripolis | Kalamata |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 8th |
| Goal difference | -9 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LLDLW | DWLWW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 10 | 10 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 39.4 | 47.3 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 28% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Asteras Tripolis 39.4 versus Kalamata 47.3, a gap of 7.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.40, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Asteras Tripolis' way at 53%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Asteras Tripolis at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Kalamata's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Asteras Tripolis's way, especially at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Asteras Tripolis or Kalamata?
Asteras Tripolis, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Asteras Tripolis, 27% the draw and 28% Kalamata.
When and where is Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata being played?
8 November 2026 at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium, Tripoli, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Have Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Asteras Tripolis and Kalamata?
Asteras Tripolis have taken 4 points from their last five (LLDLW), Kalamata 10 from theirs (DWLWW). Most recently Asteras Tripolis took a 1-2 defeat away at PAOK and Kalamata a 1-1 draw at home to Iraklis 1908.
How many goals are expected in Asteras Tripolis vs Kalamata?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.40 — 0.60 for Asteras Tripolis and 1.80 for Kalamata. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.