Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 52% for Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Brisbane Roar host Perth Glory on 23 October 2026 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 52%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 2 fixture in A-League is listed as Brisbane Roar - Perth Glory. Kick-off is 09:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Brisbane Roar: they come in on the back of a win, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 32 conceded in 17 matches, 1.0 and 1.88 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 25.0 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of 0.
Perth Glory: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 22 conceded in 15 matches, 1.47 and 1.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 24.8 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Brisbane Roar | Perth Glory |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 10th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLWWW | LLWDW |
| Points from last 5 | 12 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 17 / 7 | 7 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 15 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.0 / 1.88 | 1.47 / 1.47 |
| Points per game (2025) | 0.47 | 1.4 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 25.0 | 24.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 16% | 32% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 1 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Brisbane Roar none wins, Perth Glory one win, one draw — a historically tight match-up.
- Most recent meeting: Perth Glory 2-1 Brisbane Roar on 25 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 2.5 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — broadly an average game for goals.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.50, over 2.5 goals at 14% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Perth Glory's way at 56%.
The call
The model tilts to a draw at 52%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Brisbane Roar's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Brisbane Roar or Perth Glory?
Neither side. Our model splits it 16% Brisbane Roar, 52% the draw and 32% Perth Glory, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory being played?
23 October 2026 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, kick-off 09:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory?
Perth Glory 2-1 Brisbane Roar on 25 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Brisbane Roar and Perth Glory?
Brisbane Roar have taken 12 points from their last five (WLWWW), Perth Glory 7 from theirs (LLWDW). Most recently Brisbane Roar took a 4-3 win away at Olympic and Perth Glory a 1-2 defeat away at Macarthur.
How many goals are expected in Brisbane Roar vs Perth Glory?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.50 — 0.50 for Brisbane Roar and 1.00 for Perth Glory. It rates over 2.5 goals at 14%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.