Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur match summary and prediction — A-League
Our model makes Newcastle Jets the pick at 51% for Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Macarthur travel to Newcastle Jets on 24 October 2026 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Newcastle Jets are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 51%. This matchday 2 fixture in A-League is listed as Newcastle Jets - Macarthur. Kick-off is 04:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Newcastle Jets: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 23 conceded in 16 matches, 2.31 and 1.44 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 28.3 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of 0.
Macarthur: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 35 conceded in 17 matches, 1.88 and 2.06 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.2 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Newcastle Jets | Macarthur |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 3rd |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLLLD | WDWWL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 16 | 11 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.31 / 1.44 | 1.88 / 2.06 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.81 | 1.47 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 28.3 | 35.2 |
| Players unavailable | 4 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 51% | 27% |
| Head-to-head wins (last 2) | 0 | 2 |
What stands out
- Head-to-head balance (last 2): Newcastle Jets none wins, Macarthur two wins, none draws — an edge to Macarthur.
- Most recent meeting: Macarthur 3-2 Newcastle Jets on 02 April 2026.
- Head-to-head goals: 7.0 per game across those meetings, with both teams scoring in all of them — a fixture that has tended to open up.
- Pre-match form ratings: Newcastle Jets 28.3 versus Macarthur 35.2, a gap of 6.9, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Newcastle Jets carry the heavier absentee list, four players to no.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 4.00, over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams to score at 62%.
- First goal: Leans Newcastle Jets' way at 58%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Newcastle Jets at 51%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Macarthur's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Newcastle Jets's way, especially at McDonald Jones Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Newcastle Jets or Macarthur?
Newcastle Jets, with an implied win probability of roughly 51%. The full split is 51% Newcastle Jets, 23% the draw and 27% Macarthur.
When and where is Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur being played?
24 October 2026 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle, kick-off 04:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Newcastle Jets and Macarthur?
Macarthur 3-2 Newcastle Jets on 02 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Newcastle Jets and Macarthur?
Newcastle Jets have taken 2 points from their last five (DLLLD), Macarthur 10 from theirs (WDWWL). Most recently Newcastle Jets took a 2-2 draw away at Central Coast Mariners and Macarthur a 2-1 win at home to Perth Glory.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle Jets vs Macarthur?
The model's combined scoring line is 4.00 — 1.80 for Newcastle Jets and 2.20 for Macarthur. It rates over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 62%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists four players unavailable for Newcastle Jets and no for Macarthur at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.