Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes Newcastle Jets the pick at 48% for Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Newcastle Jets face Wellington Phoenix on 31 October 2026 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Newcastle Jets are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 3 fixture in A-League is listed as Newcastle Jets - Wellington Phoenix. Kick-off is 04:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Newcastle Jets: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 23 conceded in 16 matches, 2.31 and 1.44 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 31.7 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of 0.
Wellington Phoenix: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one win and two defeats before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 26 conceded in 14 matches, 1.5 and 1.86 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +3.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Newcastle Jets | Wellington Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 1st |
| Goal difference | 0 | +3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDLL | WWLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 18 | 6 / 8 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 16 | 14 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 2.31 / 1.44 | 1.5 / 1.86 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.81 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 31.7 | 45.8 |
| Players unavailable | 22 | 6 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Newcastle Jets 31.7 versus Wellington Phoenix 45.8, a gap of 14.1, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: Newcastle Jets carry the heavier absentee list, 22 players to six.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.60, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 58%.
- First goal: Leans Newcastle Jets' way at 55%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Newcastle Jets at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Wellington Phoenix's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Newcastle Jets's way, especially at McDonald Jones Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Newcastle Jets or Wellington Phoenix?
Newcastle Jets, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Newcastle Jets, 23% the draw and 29% Wellington Phoenix.
When and where is Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix being played?
31 October 2026 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle, kick-off 04:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix?
Newcastle Jets 4-1 Wellington Phoenix on 23 January 2026.
What is the recent form of Newcastle Jets and Wellington Phoenix?
Newcastle Jets have taken 2 points from their last five (LDDLL), Wellington Phoenix 9 from theirs (WWLWL). Most recently Newcastle Jets took a 2-5 defeat away at Kyoto Sanga and Wellington Phoenix a 2-0 win at home to Central Coast Mariners.
How many goals are expected in Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.60 — 1.40 for Newcastle Jets and 1.20 for Wellington Phoenix. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 58%, so its call is yes.
Who is unavailable?
Our injury feed lists 22 players unavailable for Newcastle Jets and six for Wellington Phoenix at the time of writing. Confirmed line-ups land about an hour before kick-off.