Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Auckland the pick at 44% for Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Wellington Phoenix travel to Auckland on 7 November 2026 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Auckland are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 44%. This matchday 4 fixture in A-League is listed as Auckland - Wellington Phoenix. Kick-off is 04:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Auckland: they come in on the back of a draw, following one win and three defeats before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (35 scored and 22 conceded in 21 matches, 1.67 and 1.05 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -1.
Wellington Phoenix: they come in on a three-match winning sequence, following one win and one defeat before that. That is four wins, no draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 12 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (21 scored and 26 conceded in 14 matches, 1.5 and 1.86 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.5 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Auckland | Wellington Phoenix |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 1st |
| Goal difference | -1 | +6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DLWLL | WWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 4 | 12 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 11 | 9 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 21 | 14 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.67 / 1.05 | 1.5 / 1.86 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.57 | 1.5 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 38.1 | 56.5 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 44% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Auckland 38.1 versus Wellington Phoenix 56.5, a gap of 18.4, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.80, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Auckland's way at 52%.
The call
The model edges towards Auckland at 44%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Wellington Phoenix's stronger recent metrics back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Auckland's way, especially at Go Media Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Auckland or Wellington Phoenix?
Auckland, with an implied win probability of roughly 44%. The full split is 44% Auckland, 27% the draw and 29% Wellington Phoenix.
When and where is Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix being played?
7 November 2026 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland, kick-off 04:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Auckland and Wellington Phoenix?
Wellington Phoenix 0-5 Auckland on 21 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Auckland and Wellington Phoenix?
Auckland have taken 4 points from their last five (DLWLL), Wellington Phoenix 12 from theirs (WWWLW). Most recently Auckland took a 1-1 draw away at Brisbane Roar and Wellington Phoenix a 3-0 win away at Newcastle Jets.
How many goals are expected in Auckland vs Wellington Phoenix?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.80 — 2.00 for Auckland and 1.80 for Wellington Phoenix. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.