Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Perth Glory the pick at 43% for Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Newcastle Jets travel to Perth Glory on 7 November 2026 at HBF Park, Perth. Perth Glory are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 43%. This matchday 4 fixture in A-League is listed as Perth Glory - Newcastle Jets. Kick-off is 10:45 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Perth Glory: they come in on the back of a win, following one win and three defeats before that. That is two wins, no draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 6 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (22 scored and 22 conceded in 15 matches, 1.47 and 1.47 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 35.5 out of 100, and they sit 8th on a goal difference of +2.
Newcastle Jets: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following two draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (37 scored and 23 conceded in 16 matches, 2.31 and 1.44 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.9 out of 100, and they sit 11th on a goal difference of -3.
Side by side
| Statistic | Perth Glory | Newcastle Jets |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th | 11th |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WLLLW | LLDDL |
| Points from last 5 | 6 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 9 / 7 | 6 / 14 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 15 | 16 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.47 / 1.47 | 2.31 / 1.44 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.4 | 1.81 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 35.5 | 30.9 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 43% | 29% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Perth Glory 35.5 versus Newcastle Jets 30.9, a gap of 4.6, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.80, over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 60%.
- First goal: Leans Perth Glory's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Perth Glory at 43%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Perth Glory's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Perth Glory's way, especially at HBF Park.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Perth Glory or Newcastle Jets?
Perth Glory, with an implied win probability of roughly 43%. The full split is 43% Perth Glory, 28% the draw and 29% Newcastle Jets.
When and where is Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets being played?
7 November 2026 at HBF Park, Perth, kick-off 10:45 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets?
Perth Glory 1-3 Newcastle Jets on 13 February 2026.
What is the recent form of Perth Glory and Newcastle Jets?
Perth Glory have taken 6 points from their last five (WLLLW), Newcastle Jets 2 from theirs (LLDDL). Most recently Perth Glory took a 4-0 win at home to Adelaide United and Newcastle Jets a 0-3 defeat at home to Wellington Phoenix.
How many goals are expected in Perth Glory vs Newcastle Jets?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.80 — 1.60 for Perth Glory and 1.20 for Newcastle Jets. It rates over 2.5 goals at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 60%, so its call is yes.