Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes Macarthur the pick at 42% for Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Brisbane Roar travel to Macarthur on 8 November 2026 at Campbelltown Stadium, Sydney. Macarthur are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 42%. This matchday 4 fixture in A-League is listed as Macarthur - Brisbane Roar. Kick-off is 04:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Macarthur: they come in on two successive draws, following two wins and one draw before that. That is two wins, three draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 35 conceded in 17 matches, 1.88 and 2.06 per game) points to strong attacking output with occasional defensive lapses. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.9 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +1.
Brisbane Roar: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in three. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (17 scored and 32 conceded in 17 matches, 1.0 and 1.88 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.6 out of 100, and they sit 4th on a goal difference of +1.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Macarthur | Brisbane Roar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 4th |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDWDW | DWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 9 | 10 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 3 | 12 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.88 / 2.06 | 1.0 / 1.88 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.47 | 0.47 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.9 | 38.6 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 42% | 30% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Macarthur 41.9 versus Brisbane Roar 38.6, a gap of 3.3, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 3.20, over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams to score at 63%.
- First goal: Leans Macarthur's way at 51%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards Macarthur at 42%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Macarthur's way, especially at Campbelltown Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Macarthur or Brisbane Roar?
Macarthur, with an implied win probability of roughly 42%. The full split is 42% Macarthur, 27% the draw and 30% Brisbane Roar.
When and where is Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar being played?
8 November 2026 at Campbelltown Stadium, Sydney, kick-off 04:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Macarthur and Brisbane Roar?
Macarthur 2-1 Brisbane Roar on 19 December 2025.
What is the recent form of Macarthur and Brisbane Roar?
Macarthur have taken 9 points from their last five (DDWDW), Brisbane Roar 10 from theirs (DWWLW). Most recently Macarthur took a 0-0 draw at home to Western Sydney Wanderers and Brisbane Roar a 1-1 draw at home to Auckland.
How many goals are expected in Macarthur vs Brisbane Roar?
The model's combined scoring line is 3.20 — 1.60 for Macarthur and 1.60 for Brisbane Roar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 63%, so its call is yes.