BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United — form, head-to-head and match prediction
Our model makes BG Pathum United the pick at 45% for BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Chiangrai United travel to BG Pathum United on 24 October 2026 at True BG Stadium, Patum Thani. BG Pathum United are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 45%. This matchday 6 fixture in Thai League 1 is listed as BG Pathum United - Chiangrai United. Kick-off is 12:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
BG Pathum United: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two draws and two defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored five and conceded eight, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.0 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of 0.
Chiangrai United: they come in on the back of a draw, following one draw and three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored four and conceded seven, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 37.8 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | BG Pathum United | Chiangrai United |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 12th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDLDL | DLLLD |
| Points from last 5 | 2 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 8 | 4 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 0 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.0 | 37.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 45% | 30% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: BG Pathum United 45.0 versus Chiangrai United 37.8, a gap of 7.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans BG Pathum United's way at 54%.
The call
The model tilts to BG Pathum United at 45%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts BG Pathum United's way, especially at True BG Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: BG Pathum United or Chiangrai United?
BG Pathum United, with an implied win probability of roughly 45%. The full split is 45% BG Pathum United, 25% the draw and 30% Chiangrai United.
When and where is BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United being played?
24 October 2026 at True BG Stadium, Patum Thani, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Have BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of BG Pathum United and Chiangrai United?
BG Pathum United have taken 2 points from their last five (LDLDL), Chiangrai United 2 from theirs (DLLLD). Most recently BG Pathum United took a 0-1 defeat away at Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United a 1-1 draw away at Burapha United.
How many goals are expected in BG Pathum United vs Chiangrai United?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 1.00 for BG Pathum United and 1.00 for Chiangrai United. It rates over 2.5 goals at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.