BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes BG Pathum United the pick at 54% for BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
BG Pathum United face Rayong FC on 8 November 2026 at True BG Stadium, Pathum Thani. BG Pathum United are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 54%. This matchday 8 fixture in Thai League 1 is listed as BG Pathum United - Rayong FC. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
BG Pathum United: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded three, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.9 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of +1.
Rayong FC: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win, one draw and one defeat before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. Across those five they scored six and conceded 13, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.2 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | BG Pathum United | Rayong FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 12th |
| Goal difference | +1 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LWWLD | LLWDL |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 3 | 6 / 13 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.9 | 30.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 54% | 25% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: BG Pathum United 41.9 versus Rayong FC 30.2, a gap of 11.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.17, over 2.5 goals at 57% and both teams to score at 55%.
- First goal: Leans BG Pathum United's way at 54%.
The call
The model tilts to BG Pathum United at 54%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. BG Pathum United's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts BG Pathum United's way, especially at True BG Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: BG Pathum United or Rayong FC?
BG Pathum United, with an implied win probability of roughly 54%. The full split is 54% BG Pathum United, 22% the draw and 25% Rayong FC.
When and where is BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC being played?
8 November 2026 at True BG Stadium, Pathum Thani, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have BG Pathum United and Rayong FC met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of BG Pathum United and Rayong FC?
BG Pathum United have taken 7 points from their last five (LWWLD), Rayong FC 4 from theirs (LLWDL). Most recently BG Pathum United took a 0-1 defeat away at Chonburi FC and Rayong FC a 0-4 defeat at home to Lamphun Warrior.
How many goals are expected in BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.17 — 1.50 for BG Pathum United and 0.67 for Rayong FC. It rates over 2.5 goals at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 55%, so its call is yes.