Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Mamelodi Sundowns the pick at 62% for Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Mamelodi Sundowns host Durban City on 31 October 2026 at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Tshwane/Pretoria. Mamelodi Sundowns are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 62%. This matchday 9 fixture in Premier Soccer League is listed as Mamelodi Sundowns - Durban City. Kick-off is 18:15 UTC.
Recent form and trajectory
Mamelodi Sundowns: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and two draws before that. That is three wins, two draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 11 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (45 scored and 21 conceded in 25 matches, 1.8 and 0.84 per game) points to a side doing the job at both ends. That is reflected in a form rating of 72.1 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +15.
Durban City: they come in on the back of a defeat, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (10 scored and 15 conceded in 13 matches, 0.77 and 1.15 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.2 out of 100, and they sit 10th on a goal difference of -2.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Mamelodi Sundowns | Durban City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 10th |
| Goal difference | +15 | -2 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDDWW | LWWLD |
| Points from last 5 | 11 | 7 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 2 | 8 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 25 | 13 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.8 / 0.84 | 0.77 / 1.15 |
| Points per game (2025) | 2.16 | 1.0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 72.1 | 41.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 62% | 11% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Mamelodi Sundowns 72.1 versus Durban City 41.2, a gap of 30.9, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Nine places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.00, over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams to score at 49%.
- First goal: Leans Mamelodi Sundowns' way at 66%.
The call
The model leans firmly towards Mamelodi Sundowns at 62%, a gap of 35 percentage points to the next outcome. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Mamelodi Sundowns's way, especially at Loftus Versfeld Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Mamelodi Sundowns or Durban City?
Mamelodi Sundowns, with an implied win probability of roughly 62%. The full split is 62% Mamelodi Sundowns, 27% the draw and 11% Durban City.
When and where is Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City being played?
31 October 2026 at Loftus Versfeld Stadium, Tshwane/Pretoria, kick-off 18:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City?
Durban City 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns on 07 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Mamelodi Sundowns and Durban City?
Mamelodi Sundowns have taken 11 points from their last five (WDDWW), Durban City 7 from theirs (LWWLD). Most recently Mamelodi Sundowns took a 1-0 win at home to Marumo Gallants and Durban City a 0-2 defeat at home to Stellenbosch.
How many goals are expected in Mamelodi Sundowns vs Durban City?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.00 — 2.00 for Mamelodi Sundowns and 0.00 for Durban City. It rates over 2.5 goals at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 49%, so its call is no.