Azam vs Mashujaa match summary and prediction — Ligi kuu Bara
Our model makes Azam the pick at 55% for Azam vs Mashujaa. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
The fixture at a glance
Azam host Mashujaa on 24 October 2026 at Azam Complex Stadium, Dar es Salaam. Azam are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 55%. This matchday 9 fixture in Ligi kuu Bara is listed as Azam - Mashujaa. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Azam: they come in on the back of a draw, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, one draw and one defeat from the last five, worth 10 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded three, with three clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 59.8 out of 100, and they sit 3rd on a goal difference of +6.
Mashujaa: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three wins and one defeat before that. That is three wins, no draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 9 points. Across those five they scored seven and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 54.0 out of 100, and they sit 6th on a goal difference of -4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Azam | Mashujaa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd | 6th |
| Goal difference | +6 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLWW | LWWLW |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 9 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 7 / 3 | 7 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 3 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 59.8 | 54.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 55% | 16% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Azam 59.8 versus Mashujaa 54.0, a gap of 5.8, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.68, over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams to score at 48%.
- First goal: Leans Azam's way at 60%.
The call
The model tilts to Azam at 55%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Azam's way, especially at Azam Complex Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Azam or Mashujaa?
Azam, with an implied win probability of roughly 55%. The full split is 55% Azam, 30% the draw and 16% Mashujaa.
When and where is Azam vs Mashujaa being played?
24 October 2026 at Azam Complex Stadium, Dar es Salaam, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Azam and Mashujaa met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Azam and Mashujaa?
Azam have taken 10 points from their last five (DWLWW), Mashujaa 9 from theirs (LWWLW). Most recently Azam took a 1-1 draw away at Masr and Mashujaa a 1-6 defeat away at Simba.
How many goals are expected in Azam vs Mashujaa?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.68 — 1.33 for Azam and 1.35 for Mashujaa. It rates over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 48%, so its call is no.