Simba vs Mbeya City: match summary, form and prediction
Our model makes a draw the pick at 39% for Simba vs Mbeya City. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Simba face Mbeya City on 24 October 2026 at Isamuhyo Stadium, Dar es Salaam. No side is favoured: the draw carries our highest model probability at 39%, which is unusual and says more about the matchup than either team. This matchday 9 fixture in Ligi kuu Bara is listed as Simba - Mbeya City. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Simba: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Across those five they scored 22 and conceded four, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 78.8 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +15.
Mbeya City: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one draw before that. That is one win, one draw and three defeats from the last five, worth 4 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored four and conceded seven, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 38.1 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of -1.
Side by side
| Statistic | Simba | Mbeya City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 9th |
| Goal difference | +15 | -1 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWWWW | LLLDW |
| Points from last 5 | 15 | 4 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 22 / 4 | 4 / 7 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 2 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 78.8 | 38.1 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 33% | 28% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Simba 78.8 versus Mbeya City 38.1, a gap of 40.7, which cuts against the model's favourite and is the tension in this one.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.00, over 2.5 goals at 27% and both teams to score at 40%.
- First goal: Leans Mbeya City's way at 42%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model edges towards a draw at 39%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Simba's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Simba or Mbeya City?
Neither side. Our model splits it 33% Simba, 39% the draw and 28% Mbeya City, with the draw carrying the highest probability.
When and where is Simba vs Mbeya City being played?
24 October 2026 at Isamuhyo Stadium, Dar es Salaam, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Simba and Mbeya City met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Simba and Mbeya City?
Simba have taken 15 points from their last five (WWWWW), Mbeya City 4 from theirs (LLLDW). Most recently Simba took a 6-1 win away at 15 de Agosto and Mbeya City a 1-2 defeat away at JKT Tanzania.
How many goals are expected in Simba vs Mbeya City?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.00 — 1.00 for Simba and 0.00 for Mbeya City. It rates over 2.5 goals at 27%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 40%, so its call is no.