Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Polisi Tanzania the pick at 46% for Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Polisi Tanzania host Geita Gold on 1 November 2026 at Ushirika Stadium, Moshi. Polisi Tanzania are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 11 fixture in Ligi kuu Bara is listed as Polisi Tanzania - Geita Gold. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Polisi Tanzania: they come in on the back of a defeat, following one win, two draws and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them winless in four. Across those five they scored five and conceded five, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 41.7 out of 100, and they sit 9th on a goal difference of 0.
Geita Gold: they come in on two successive draws, following three defeats before that. That is no wins, two draws and three defeats from the last five, worth 2 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored two and conceded ten, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 30.2 out of 100, and they sit 12th on a goal difference of -6.
Side by side
| Statistic | Polisi Tanzania | Geita Gold |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th | 12th |
| Goal difference | 0 | -6 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | LDDLW | DDLLL |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 2 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 5 / 5 | 2 / 10 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 41.7 | 30.2 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 28% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Polisi Tanzania 41.7 versus Geita Gold 30.2, a gap of 11.5, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Polisi Tanzania's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Polisi Tanzania at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Polisi Tanzania's way, especially at Ushirika Stadium.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Polisi Tanzania or Geita Gold?
Polisi Tanzania, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Polisi Tanzania, 26% the draw and 28% Geita Gold.
When and where is Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold being played?
1 November 2026 at Ushirika Stadium, Moshi, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
Have Polisi Tanzania and Geita Gold met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Polisi Tanzania and Geita Gold?
Polisi Tanzania have taken 5 points from their last five (LDDLW), Geita Gold 2 from theirs (DDLLL). Most recently Polisi Tanzania took a 0-1 defeat away at Namungo and Geita Gold a 1-1 draw away at Tabora United.
How many goals are expected in Polisi Tanzania vs Geita Gold?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Polisi Tanzania and 1.35 for Geita Gold. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.