Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar: the numbers, the form and our prediction
Our model makes Young Africans the pick at 40% for Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Young Africans face Kagera Sugar on 1 November 2026 at KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam. Young Africans are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 40%. This matchday 11 fixture in Ligi kuu Bara is listed as Young Africans - Kagera Sugar. Kick-off is 16:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Young Africans: they come in on the back of a win, following two wins and one draw before that. That is three wins, one draw and no defeats from the last four, worth 10 points. It leaves them unbeaten in four. Across those four they scored ten and conceded two, with two clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 61.8 out of 100, and they sit 2nd on a goal difference of +14.
Kagera Sugar: they come in on back-to-back defeats, following one win and two draws before that. That is one win, two draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those five they scored five and conceded five, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 39.4 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -9.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Young Africans | Kagera Sugar |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 15th |
| Goal difference | +14 | -9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WDWW | LLDWD |
| Points from last 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 10 / 2 | 5 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 61.8 | 39.4 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 40% | 31% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Young Africans 61.8 versus Kagera Sugar 39.4, a gap of 22.4, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: 13 places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.68, over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 52%.
- First goal: Leans Young Africans' way at 50%.
The call
The model edges towards Young Africans at 40%, and 'edges' is doing real work in that sentence. Young Africans' form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to under 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Young Africans's way, especially at KMC Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Young Africans or Kagera Sugar?
Young Africans, with an implied win probability of roughly 40%. The full split is 40% Young Africans, 29% the draw and 31% Kagera Sugar.
When and where is Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar being played?
1 November 2026 at KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam, kick-off 16:00 UTC.
Have Young Africans and Kagera Sugar met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Young Africans and Kagera Sugar?
Young Africans have taken 10 points from their last four (WDWW), Kagera Sugar 5 from theirs (LLDWD). Most recently Young Africans took a 2-1 win at home to Mashujaa and Kagera Sugar a 0-1 defeat away at Coastal Union.
How many goals are expected in Young Africans vs Kagera Sugar?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.68 — 0.33 for Young Africans and 1.35 for Kagera Sugar. It rates over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 52%, so its call is yes.