Tabora United vs Fountain Gate match summary and prediction — Ligi kuu Bara
Our model makes Tabora United the pick at 46% for Tabora United vs Fountain Gate. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Tabora United face Fountain Gate on 2 November 2026 at Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium. Tabora United are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 46%. This matchday 11 fixture in Ligi kuu Bara is listed as Tabora United - Fountain Gate. Kick-off is 11:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Tabora United: they come in on two successive draws, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, two draws and one defeat from the last four, worth 5 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Across those four they scored four and conceded three, with one clean sheet. That is reflected in a form rating of 44.8 out of 100, and they sit 13th on a goal difference of -1.
Fountain Gate: they come in on the back of a defeat, following three draws and one defeat before that. That is no wins, three draws and two defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them winless in five. Across those five they scored four and conceded six, with none clean sheets. That is reflected in a form rating of 32.8 out of 100, and they sit 16th on a goal difference of -9.
Side by side
| Statistic | Tabora United | Fountain Gate |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 16th |
| Goal difference | -1 | -9 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DDLW | LDDLD |
| Points from last 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 4 / 3 | 4 / 6 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 0 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 44.8 | 32.8 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 46% | 28% |
What stands out
- Pre-match form ratings: Tabora United 44.8 versus Fountain Gate 32.8, a gap of 12.0, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 2.70, over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams to score at 51%.
- First goal: Leans Tabora United's way at 54%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Tabora United at 46%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. The goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Tabora United's way, especially at Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Tabora United or Fountain Gate?
Tabora United, with an implied win probability of roughly 46%. The full split is 46% Tabora United, 26% the draw and 28% Fountain Gate.
When and where is Tabora United vs Fountain Gate being played?
2 November 2026 at Ali Hassan Mwinyi Stadium, kick-off 11:00 UTC.
Have Tabora United and Fountain Gate met before?
Our records hold no previous meeting between the two sides.
What is the recent form of Tabora United and Fountain Gate?
Tabora United have taken 5 points from their last four (DDLW), Fountain Gate 3 from theirs (LDDLD). Most recently Tabora United took a 1-1 draw at home to Geita Gold and Fountain Gate a 0-1 defeat at home to Simba.
How many goals are expected in Tabora United vs Fountain Gate?
The model's combined scoring line is 2.70 — 1.35 for Tabora United and 1.35 for Fountain Gate. It rates over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 51%, so its call is yes.