Avellino vs Palermo — form, head-to-head and match prediction
There is barely anything between Avellino and Palermo on our numbers. Form trajectory, a side-by-side comparison, the head-to-head record and where the model does — and does not — commit.
Match summary
Avellino host Palermo on 13 September 2026 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino. Palermo are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 4 fixture in Serie B is listed as Avellino - Palermo. Kick-off is 15:15 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Avellino: they come in on a two-match winning sequence, following one draw and two defeats before that. That is two wins, one draw and two defeats from the last five, worth 7 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 24 conceded in 17 matches, 1.12 and 1.41 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 45.8 out of 100, and they sit 5th on a goal difference of +3.
Palermo: they come in on a five-match winning sequence. That is five wins, no draws and no defeats from the last five, worth 15 points. It leaves them unbeaten in five. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (32 scored and 18 conceded in 18 matches, 1.78 and 1.0 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 56.0 out of 100, and they sit 1st on a goal difference of +4.
Comparison data
| Statistic | Avellino | Palermo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th | 1st |
| Goal difference | +3 | +4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | WWLLD | WWWWW |
| Points from last 5 | 7 | 15 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 6 / 6 | 14 / 5 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 2 | 2 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 18 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.12 / 1.41 | 1.78 / 1.0 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.35 | 2.11 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 45.8 | 56.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 8% | 48% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Avellino 45.8 versus Palermo 56.0, a gap of 10.2, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.85, over 2.5 goals at 7% and both teams to score at 30%.
- First goal: Leans Palermo's way at 66%.
The call
The model does not commit. Palermo is the nominal pick at 48%, but the three results sit close to even. The goals line points to under 2.5 goals.
This is a data-led read, not a certainty. The numbers are shown as they come out of the model so the basis for the call can be checked rather than assumed.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Avellino or Palermo?
Palermo, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 8% Avellino, 44% the draw and 48% Palermo.
When and where is Avellino vs Palermo being played?
13 September 2026 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino, kick-off 15:15 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Avellino and Palermo?
Palermo 2-0 Avellino on 05 April 2026.
What is the recent form of Avellino and Palermo?
Avellino have taken 7 points from their last five (WWLLD), Palermo 15 from theirs (WWWWW). Most recently Avellino took a 1-0 win away at Modena and Palermo a 3-1 win at home to Sampdoria.
How many goals are expected in Avellino vs Palermo?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.85 — 0.25 for Avellino and 1.60 for Palermo. It rates over 2.5 goals at 7%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 30%, so its call is no.