Avellino vs Padova match summary and prediction — Serie B
Our model makes Avellino the pick at 48% for Avellino vs Padova. Form trajectory, comparison data, head-to-head and the reasoning behind the call.
Match summary
Avellino face Padova on 24 October 2026 at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino. Avellino are the model's favourite, with a win probability of roughly 48%. This matchday 8 fixture in Serie B is listed as Avellino - Padova. Kick-off is 13:00 UTC.
Form analysis and trajectory
Avellino: they come in on the back of a draw, following two wins, one draw and one defeat before that. That is two wins, two draws and one defeat from the last five, worth 8 points. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (19 scored and 24 conceded in 17 matches, 1.12 and 1.41 per game) points to a fairly even balance between the two ends of the pitch. That is reflected in a form rating of 52.7 out of 100, and they sit 7th on a goal difference of +4.
Padova: they come in on three defeats in a row, following one win and one defeat before that. That is one win, no draws and four defeats from the last five, worth 3 points. It leaves them three games without a win. Their 2025-season record in our dataset (15 scored and 24 conceded in 17 matches, 0.88 and 1.41 per game) underlines how hard they have found it to score. That is reflected in a form rating of 34.0 out of 100, and they sit 15th on a goal difference of -4.
Side by side
| Statistic | Avellino | Padova |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th | 15th |
| Goal difference | +4 | -4 |
| Form (last 5, most recent first) | DWLDW | LLLWL |
| Points from last 5 | 8 | 3 |
| Goals scored / conceded (last 5) | 8 / 6 | 4 / 9 |
| Clean sheets (last 5) | 1 | 1 |
| Matches in our dataset (2025 season) | 17 | 17 |
| Goals per game, scored / conceded (2025) | 1.12 / 1.41 | 0.88 / 1.41 |
| Points per game (2025) | 1.35 | 1.06 |
| Form rating (0-100) | 52.7 | 34.0 |
| Players unavailable | 0 | 0 |
| Model win probability | 48% | 27% |
Key match insights
- Pre-match form ratings: Avellino 52.7 versus Padova 34.0, a gap of 18.7, which aligns with the model's favourite.
- Table gap: Eight places separate them, the kind of margin that usually shows in the first twenty minutes.
- Availability: No absentees listed for either side in our injury feed at the time of writing.
- Goals outlook: A combined scoring line of 1.40, over 2.5 goals at 53% and both teams to score at 54%.
- First goal: Leans Avellino's way at 58%.
Sentiment and prediction
The model tilts to Avellino at 48%, without enough room to treat it as a formality. Avellino's form line and home advantage back it and the goals line points to over 2.5 goals. Baseline expectation tilts Avellino's way, especially at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Everything here is model output and a reading of the form rather than a guarantee — the probabilities are published in full so the reasoning behind the call is visible.
Frequently asked questions
Who is favoured to win the match: Avellino or Padova?
Avellino, with an implied win probability of roughly 48%. The full split is 48% Avellino, 25% the draw and 27% Padova.
When and where is Avellino vs Padova being played?
24 October 2026 at Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Avellino, kick-off 13:00 UTC.
What was the result of the last match between Avellino and Padova?
Avellino 1-0 Padova on 07 March 2026.
What is the recent form of Avellino and Padova?
Avellino have taken 8 points from their last five (DWLDW), Padova 3 from theirs (LLLWL). Most recently Avellino took a 1-1 draw away at Cesena and Padova a 1-2 defeat at home to Virtus Entella.
How many goals are expected in Avellino vs Padova?
The model's combined scoring line is 1.40 — 0.60 for Avellino and 0.80 for Padova. It rates over 2.5 goals at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The model rates both teams to score at 54%, so its call is yes.